Word
Gems
What is a
man but the sum of his thoughts?
Motley Fool:
The Importance of Dividends
The Investing Strategy
That Keeps Giving
Investors are constantly chasing the next big
winner, but you can count on the best gains from the dividends dropping into your account
month after month.
By Nathan Parmelee
December 23, 2005
For many investors, the only reward that matters is an increase in
share price. The faster and steeper that ascent, the better. Movements in price are
the most obvious and talked-about way to earn profits from the stock market. Every night,
the news broadcast flashes the price and percentage change for the Dow, S&P 500, or
Nasdaq -- not the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) or yield for each index.
Look beyond those capital gains, however, and you might find a
dividend. For long-term investors, dividends are far from one-time gains -- they can
be the special sauce that provides market-shattering performance. For instance, a dividend
can be a regular cash addition to your portfolio. It allows you to pick up more shares of
common stock. Sometimes, it allows you to take advantage of opportune moments when the
shares are on sale. But perhaps most important is that the dividend grows over
time, just like sales and earnings.
Dividends in action
For evidence of the power of dividends, take a look at the payouts a company has
made over the years. Put together a spreadsheet that begins with the core position
(and cost basis), and calculate how reinvesting dividends would have purchased
additional shares over time (generally each quarter). Although it takes a little bit of
time, the power of dividends becomes quite clear. (To get started, all you need to do
is find historical price data, which is available on sites such as Yahoo! Finance.)
I've done such an exercise before (found here) for Wrigley
(NYSE: WWY).
A few companies make this easier for us by providing a return calculator in
the investor relations portion of their websites. Johnson & Johnson's
(NYSE: JNJ) website, for
example, has data that goes back to July 1980.
To research the historical performance of Johnson & Johnson, I
punched in 100 fictional shares with a purchase date of July 28, 1980 (the first date
allowed). The purchase price on that day was $80.13 for a total initial cost of $8,012.50.
I'm well aware that $8,000 is not a small amount for many investors, but because Johnson
& Johnson does not charge an initial setup fee or any fees for dividend reinvestment,
the percentages work out the same regardless of the initial amount.
According to J&J's calculator, as of today (at a price of $60.97) those
same 100 shares, with no additional contributions and dividends reinvested, are
now approximately 3,327 shares and are worth more than $202,850. That's a total
return of 2,431%, or approximately 13.3% per year. Remember that initial $8,012.50
investment? Each year, you'd now receive more in dividends than your initial
cost basis. J&J does not provide a comparison to the S&P 500, but a quick glance
Yahoo! Finance shows that over the same time period the S&P 500 returned 944% (9.8%
annualized).
Dividend stock performance, July 28, 1980, to Dec. 22, 2005
| Company |
Total Return |
Annualized Return |
| Johnson & Johnson |
2,431% |
13.3% |
| ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) |
4,258% |
17.9% |
| Abbott Laboratories* (NYSE: ABT) |
2,562% |
15.5% |
| S&P 500 |
944% |
9.8% |
Data from Yahoo! Finance. *From April 6, 1983, to Dec. 22,
2005.
It takes time to get going
The time frame of this exercise reveals the most difficult thing about dividend
investing -- it takes time. Dividends are cumulative and grow over time, so it can
take several years before the true benefits take hold. And during periods of stock
price decline or flatness it can feel like you're treading water.
However, dividends do eventually take hold. In The Future for
Investors, Jeremy Siegel espouses a long-term dividend reinvestment
strategy based on research that showed how soundly dividend-paying stocks
outperformed non-dividend payers from 1957 to 2003. Since 1957, Johnson & Johnson
isn't one of the S&P's top 20 performers. In fact, its 13.3% return from
1980 to 2005 is still less than the 13.58% return the 20th-ranked company on the list, General
Mills, earned from 1957 to 2003. Many familiar names did rank well: PepsiCo
(NYSE: PEP), Fortune
Brands (NYSE: FO), and Procter
& Gamble (NYSE: PG) came in at 8th, 13th,
and 16th, respectively.
Many investors believe that because dividends are taxed at a higher rate
than capital gains their effects are not as strong as advertised. This belief has some
truth to it, but it is possible to maximize the benefits of dividends while laying out
plans to minimize taxes and transaction costs. For investors with IRAs, investing in
dividend-paying stocks makes a great deal of sense, because the dividends and the
returns they earn while reinvested will not be taxed until withdrawn, and even then
they'll be taxed at the long-term capital gains rate.
With a little patience, the power of dividends can be put to work in your
account. Consider this very interesting email I received last month from a reader, which
closed with the following paragraph:
Finally, I'm employed by a transfer agent. It's amazing how much
cash some wealthy/long-term investors are receiving via their periodical dividend
checks and/or reinvestment purchases. It is mind-blowing in some cases. If I
hadn't seen all this with my very own eyes, I wouldn't believe it. It's
certainly something to aspire to.
Foolish final thoughts
The best results from dividends require patience, a long-term time horizon, and
excellent companies for your investment dollars. That last point is the toughest to
master. You can improve your odds by focusing on good companies that have long-term
competitive advantages and high returns on capital and equity. If you can get that for a
fair price, you're well on your way.
Extra Dividends, Extra
Growth
Despite the fact that we've received a great deal of positive feedback from
folks who like the name of our dividend-oriented newsletter, Motley
Fool Income Investor, it seems that some readers are slightly confused by the
title. This is evidenced by comments I occasionally receive such as "I
enjoy your writing, but I'm too young to focus on dividends" or "I like the idea
of dividend-paying stocks, but I don't need the income offered by your newsletter."
So, let's clarify a few things about the focus of this service and the
purpose of a dividend-oriented investment strategy. Though I've said it before,
I can't say it enough: Dividend investing is not age-specific, nor do most people who
invest in dividend stocks require the income. Just to be clear, income is simply an
additional benefit of the dividend strategy, not its sole purpose.
Investing against the grain
Many perceive dividend-paying stocks as boring investments with low growth potential
or that they're meant exclusively for investors approaching retirement. While there's
every reason that your father or grandfather should own these stocks, too, nothing could
be further from the truth.
Numerous detailed studies have determined that, over the long term, the
stocks of companies that pay dividends tend to outperform the stocks of those that don't.
They also tend to outperform the S&P 500. Even better, they do this while generating
far less volatility than their stingy competitors, which means there's a greater chance
that your money will be there when you need it.
So, while income is certainly a benefit, a dividend strategy is -- at its
core -- nothing more than an excellent screening tool for producing a pool of low-risk
companies with market-beating potential.
That's why I usually refer to this method of investing as "the ability
to have your cake and eat it if you want to." If you happen to be watching your
figure at the moment and choosing to save your cake for later, that's fine, too -- and
easily accomplished through dividend reinvestment or holding your dividend payers in
tax-advantaged accounts. Certainly, even among dividend stocks, one must still choose her
investments wisely (that is, Foolishly), but this criterion can be a very good place to
start.
The forgotten art
According to the Financial Analysts Journal, dividend-payout ratios have been in
the bottom 10% of the historical range since 1995. As you might suspect, they reached
unprecedented lows during the height of the market bubble -- from late 1999 to mid-2001 --
before recovering somewhat over the past few years.
Many think that it's better for companies to retain all of their
earnings because they assume that the company can reinvest them more profitably than they
can. However, if that were true, non-dividend-paying companies would outperform dividend
payers. But again, the data does not support this. Indeed, it appears that a given
company's decision to pay a dividend -- or increase it -- is, historically, a much more
reliable indicator of management's confidence in future earnings than the decision to
retain profits.
Though there are many firms out there with excellent management, I think
we've seen enough to know that putting too much faith in a manager's benevolence is
unwise. Even in the case of many quality managers, their interests are not always aligned
with those of shareholders, and this can lead to destruction of capital.
To forgo dividends entirely is to effectively take a leap of faith that
management will always act in shareholders' best interests and not engage in
undesirable practices, such as compensating itself excessively or engaging in empire
building via dilutive acquisitions.
Given the recent resurgence in the popularity of dividend-paying stocks --
which has likely resulted from reduced faith in management to honestly and effectively
deploy capital, favorable tax cuts, and the poor performance of many non-dividend payers
-- I believe the dividend is once again becoming an important component of the individual
investor's decision-making process. This -- coupled with the likelihood of below-average
overall stock market returns in the years to come -- bodes well for a dividend-focused
strategy because it means that dividends will play a larger role in total returns.
The results
The average dividend yield of my Income
Investor recommendations is 4.55%, or three times that of the S&P 500. These
picks have also experienced just half the volatility of the overall market.
But, of course, you have to sacrifice growth to get those kinds of results,
right? Not so fast. Despite our stodgy dividend focus, our service has managed to
generate a total return nearly two times greater than that of the S&P 500. Further, 21
of our 30 recommendations have produced double-digit returns, with 12 of those generating
a total return of more than 20% and six of them returning more than 30%. Consistency is
another benefit of our approach, with 26 of our 30 selections outperforming the S&P.
Believe me, friends, when I say that the dividend is back, and we don't have
to sacrifice a thing to hail its return. Our general target company will have a
dividend yield approaching 3%, which is a fairly high benchmark to achieve in today's
market, but this target tends to lead us to better values that also have better growth
potential. Another beauty of the strategy is that you'll get paid to wait for the market
to realize those values. If the price remains low, you'll simply have an opportunity to
reinvest your dividends at that low price or you may choose to cash in on your 3% as
needed.
While this target would currently exclude a fantastic company such as PepsiCo
(NYSE: PEP) -- with its current
yield of 1.8% -- from becoming a core recommendation, it also keeps us from paying too
much for proven winners. Indeed, I never lose faith that the PepsiCos or Wal-Marts
(NYSE: WMT) of the world will
one day find their way into the pages of Income
Investor, as firms fall into the market's "forgotten list" for one
reason or another. And that's when the real dividend values come out to play. After all,
if we can snatch up shares of such proven companies as RPM International (NYSE: RPM) and Sara Lee
(NYSE: SLE) -- which have
generated total returns for our subscribers of 33.7% and 21.9%, respectively -- when
they're yielding nearly 4%, then the PepsiCos and the Johnson & Johnsons
(NYSE: JNJ) are certainly in the
realm of possibility.
The Foolish bottom line
I'm not trying to make dividend investing cool here. In fact, I'd prefer that it
remain decidedly uncool, as this creates more chances for us dividend lovers to find
market-beating companies that also pay out the cabbage.
I'm also not suggesting that every company in your arsenal pay a dividend --
there are many fine companies that don't. (However, I would say that as these companies
continue their track records of success, it's likely that many of them will become
dividend payers in their own right.)
Frankly, what some call maturity, I call stability -- as exemplified by the
recent news of a dividend increase and one-time payout at Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) -- and I believe
plenty of investors will find dividend investing both stable and rewarding.
This article was originally published on September 13, 2004. It has been
updated.
How to Achieve 20% Yields
As author of the Fool's dividend-oriented newsletter, Motley
Fool Income Investor, one of the most common emails that I receive goes something
like this:
In order to meet my income needs, I need some investment ideas that will
produce a yield in the 10%-12% range. What would you suggest?
Sincerely,
P.S. I prefer to take very little risk.
P.P.S. I love your work, but what's with the hat?
Ah, I love the easy ones. As you might suspect, my response to
this question -- in its varied forms -- is always the same, basically
consisting of a polite version of "Holy sweet potatoes, please tell me you have
a plan B."
The truth is, the 10% yield is elusive in its own right -- and that's
putting it mildly. But, worse still, it's nearly impossible to find when you expect to
achieve it without simultaneously swallowing a big dose of risk.
The good news
OK, so that's the bad news. The good news is that -- despite what I just told you --
the art of achieving the double-digit dividend does exist. The trick is that it
exists only for those who have a little patience and a fairly long-term investment
horizon.
The irony here is that, if Mr. Pectations had sent me that letter 30
years ago, he'd probably be sitting on his own private island enjoying 20% yields as we
speak. Alas, the Mr. Pectationses of the world come to me today, plunk down their cabbage,
and expect to earn a double-digit yield tomorrow. And that means they're likely to be
disappointed.
Sure, there are the occasional opportunities such as Annaly Mortgage
Management (NYSE: NLY) -- where Income
Investor subscribers were able to lock in a hearty 12.3% yield and still enjoy a
total return of more than 17% over the past year -- but there simply aren't enough of
these high-yield wonders to allow the typical investor to build a healthy, well-balanced
portfolio that also boasts an overall yield in this range.
But again, there is a very real way for virtually all investors to achieve
extremely safe, stable, and virtually guaranteed double-digit dividend yields, provided
they start now.
Choose well and let it ride
One of the most powerful yet least appreciated aspects of dividend investing is the fact
that the best dividend payers tend to increase their dividends year in and year out. When
you couple that with the fact that your cost basis for a given investment typically
remains the same, you've just discovered the catalyst behind the amazing, growing dividend
yield. Come one, come all.
In other words, when you buy a successful dividend-paying
company, you're buying not just the dividends of today but also the dividends of tomorrow.
So, if you purchase shares in a company that yields 3%, certainly you're locking in a 3%
annual yield today, but you're also going to enjoy the dividend-growth of tomorrow.
So, if your company increases its dividend by 9% annually,
you'll have an effective annual yield on your original investment of nearly 11% in just 15
years. That's a double-digit yield on your original investment, and you didn't have to do
anything beyond making your initial purchasing decision in order to achieve it.
Most investors quickly lose sight of the growth rate in their
dividends because the information isn't readily available -- it won't show up as the yield
on your pop-up quote service. It takes a little doing to keep up with it, but trust me
when I tell you it's well worth the effort.
The real deal
"Great," you say, "but there are probably only a few such investments in
existence, and it's nearly impossible to find them, right?" Not so. Let's look at a
few real-life examples to drive the point home.
Ever heard of General Electric (NYSE: GE)? I thought not.
Purchasing a share of this little-known firm today would land you a yield of just 2.3%.
However, if you'd bought that share 10 years ago, the effective annual yield on your
original investment would be nearly 10%. Of course, the more time passes, the more
pronounced the impact. Twenty years ago? Try settling for a whopping 33% effective yield.
Though on the surface it may not seem as powerful, PepsiCo
(NYSE: PEP) tells a similar
story. Today's Pepsi buyers will bring down a yield of 1.9%. Those who purchased 10
years ago, however, established a 5.4% effective yield. Now, if that doesn't exactly
steam your tea cozy, consider that those who procured their shares a full 20 years ago
laid the groundwork for a 37% effective yield on their original investment.
Need more? Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) -- which has risen
more than 13% since I recommended it
to Fool readers back in March of this year -- is a well-known purveyor of dividends to the
masses. Though the company yields just 2% today, investors who bought 10 years ago are
enjoying an effective yield of nearly 8.6%. Again, that's not a bad decade's work, but it
still pales in comparison to what those insightful investors who purchased 20 years ago
have achieved. Though it's hard to imagine, those talented souls are pulling down an
effective yield of nearly 55% on their original investment. That's right, one score and
55% ago, these investors brought forth a new wealth-generating concept. Conceived in
liberty and dedicated to the proposition that all investors deserve early retirement.
Now, don't get me wrong here. Effective yield is not the be-all
and end-all. Today's yield -- not your effective yield -- is still the important attribute
when comparing investments and making a decision for today's investment dollars. So
don't trick yourself into thinking you have to beat your 30% effective yield when
evaluating a new place to stash some cash -- because that's just not going to happen.
Be sure to keep in mind, though, that the next time you go looking for
10% yields, they may well already be sitting smack-dab in the middle of your portfolio.
This article was first published on Oct. 18, 2004.
Sweet Dividends
It doesn't take a huge sum of money to get in
the investing game. To convince his friend of that, and to get that friend to start
investing in his daughter's future, Nathan Parmelee examines two companies that have
outperformed the market over the past 17 years -- largely because of the power of
reinvested dividends.
By Nathan Parmelee
July 8, 2005
Over the holiday weekend, my wife and I went back to my hometown to visit
with friends and family. It's always nice to catch up on old times, but my work here
at the Fool inevitably comes up at these little gatherings. As an investing nut, I'm
constantly encouraging everyone within earshot to save and invest.
I've been riding one particular friend -- a new father -- to start putting
some money to work for his daughter. You see, I missed the opportunity to start investing
earlier in life, and I don't want others to pass up the power of reinvesting dividends
over time.
My friend understands that he needs to save and invest for his daughter,
Bella, but he is wary of stocks because of his past experience as an employee at Lucent
Technology (NYSE: LU). In fairness, working
at Lucent wasn't so bad, but the investing experience in his 401(k) wasn't any fun. He
stashed the majority of his assets into shares of Lucent. As an employee in the late
1990s and for part of 2000, it doesn't take a mathematician to figure out that his
largest investment experience to date wasn't very rewarding.
Despite this negative experience, my friend also realizes that some of the
problem was his own doing, and he's coming around to the idea that some businesses are
more predictable than others -- and that some definitely carry more risk than others. Like
me, he also likes the idea of getting part of his return now in dividends.
The power of sugar and branding
Luckily, my friend and I share something in common: a love of sugar. For years
I've been subjecting my teeth to sugary beverages from Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) and PepsiCo
(NYSE: PEP), as well as candy
and gum from companies such as Hershey Foods (NYSE: HSY). Given the long-term
track records of food, candy, and beverage companies and their ability to raise prices
over time, it's tough to think of a better place to start. The other reason to love these
companies is that they tend to pay dividends that can be reinvested, and many
companies even increase their payouts every year.
To prove the power of investing in general, and the importance of adding
dividends to the mix, I chose two companies that are often cited as strong performers
and have rewarded their shareholders with dividends year after year. In addition, I also
wanted to do the math quarter by quarter to prove the benefits of this strategy to myself.
I chose July 1, 1988, as my starting point. That's the approximate day
I began earning a regular paycheck and, theoretically, could have begun investing on my
own. I was only in junior high at the time and my income was meager, but it was steady. I
started with $250 for each investment, and for the sake of mathematical simplicity
I specified that no further cash was added but that all dividends were
reinvested. If you have children with larger earning power, you can always start
with a higher base and use the numbers below to arrive at a far larger total return in
dollar terms.
Whatever it is I think I see
The first stock for my mock exercise is Tootsie Roll Industries (NYSE: TR). We've all been
munching on Tootsie Rolls for years, and the company has historically done quite well for
shareholders. For my experiment, however, Tootsie wasn't the winner (though it did not do
poorly). After starting with a little more than eight shares from the $250
investment, and factoring in reinvested dividends and splits, I'd have over 52 shares
worth approximately $1,650 today. That's about a 560% return vs. an S&P 500
return of 345% for the same time period.
Considering that Tootsie pays an annual 3% stock dividend (via a 103-to-100
split ratio) and a little more than 1% in cash each year, that's not bad.
Unfortunately, Tootsie Roll's business has been a bit stagnant the past few years, as have
the dividends and share price. That said, the company still has a solid balance sheet and
generates a strong amount of free cash flow. Considering the long-term performance of the
company and the fact that candy doesn't go out of style, investors should keep
Tootsie Roll on their radar.
Make a fortune in bubble gum
The other company I looked at is Wrigley (NYSE: WWY). Just like Tootsie
Roll, Wrigley has generated absolutely fabulous historical returns for shareholders. In
this historical exercise, the original six shares of Wrigley purchased in 1988
ballooned into just over 56 shares and a value of $3,850 today. That's a market-smashing
1,440% return. And while the current 1.6% dividend yield is small, it is a bit
deceiving because I'd be receiving approximately $91 a year in dividends on my
original $250 investment. Such a comparison of dividends paid to original investment is
not a wise way to value a stock, but it does an excellent job of highlighting the effects
of dividend growth over time.
It's also worth noting that Wrigley's stock has been a very steady
historical performer -- because the business has been a very steady performer. There
have, however, been occasional swoons during which time shares fell by 20% or
more. Those short-term blips are the opportunities we need to seize with companies like
Wrigley.
Foolish final words
The above exercise was fun, easy to understand, and -- at least for me --
enlightening. As my friend became comfortable with such investments, I would strongly urge
him to adopt a Motley
Fool Income Investor strategy. I think the 3%-plus dividend yield from an Income
Investor selection like Diageo (NYSE: DEO) is easy to
understand and would boost the overall return on investment.
For now, though, I'll settle for just getting him to start investing
for his daughter's future. Whether the money goes toward college or backpacking around
Europe, the power of reinvesting dividends over time is something that no one should miss
out on.
The Lifetime Investment
Strategy
Over the years, I've been asked the same question: How do I build a flexible
portfolio that will continue to meet my long-term needs? Since I write the
Fool's dividend-stock newsletter, Motley
Fool Income Investor, it won't surprise many of you to hear me say that I believe
a dividend-oriented portfolio achieves the best of all worlds, for all people. But after a
recent visit with a large group of investors, I believe it's more important than ever to
say so.
Though a dividend-oriented strategy would seem like an easy sell to many of
you, that's not necessarily the case with the average investor, young or old. About a
month ago, I had the pleasure of speaking at the National Association of Investors Corporation's convention in Atlanta,
and this fact was driven home by some of the questions posed to me there.
It seems that many older investors have overlooked the dividend-oriented
investment strategy altogether. Instead, they've gone with the oft-preached tack of buying
"growth" stocks throughout their younger years and adding an ever-larger portion
of bonds as they approach retirement. Interestingly, the concept of relying solely on
income from a stock portfolio is foreign to many of them.
I think this is largely because dividend yields have appeared too low to
convince folks that they would receive adequate income when they need it. Of course, what
they've failed to consider is that the best companies, such as Bank of America
(NYSE: BAC) and AGL
Resources (NYSE: ATG), tend to increase
their dividends at rates well above the rate of inflation. Thus, the yield on their
original investment would prove much more meaningful over time.
Get flexible at no cost to you!
Certainly, there are many things to like about a dividend portfolio. That your stocks fall
just half as much as non-payers during bear markets is an obvious one. Then there's the
fact that, despite the lower volatility and business risk, your long-term returns tend to
be higher than those of the market as a whole (by at least a couple of percentage points
over nearly any period).
But at its core, a dividend strategy is about ultimate flexibility. As I've
said, it lets you have your cake and eat it if you want to. In other words, if you need
the income, you take it. If you don't, you reinvest it until you need it. And by then,
you'll likely have the means to produce a larger income than you could have imagined.
For the older folks who are looking for income, there's more flexibility
with a dividend portfolio today than at any other time in history. Consider that most
brokerage firms and Drip plans now give you the choice between reinvesting dividends or
receiving cash payments at the individual company level -- sometimes even at an individual
share level.
For example, say you have a portfolio with 20 dividend-paying stocks. Most
firms now let you reinvest dividends on your entire portfolio. Otherwise, you can pick a
few companies for reinvestment and get the dividends on the remainder of the portfolio as
cash. Indeed, some account providers will let you go a step further and specify the number
of shares of a given holding on which you'd like to reinvest or receive the dividends.
Thus, you have considerable control over exactly how much income you'd like to receive as
cash at any one time. Turning the spigot on or off doesn't come so easily with any other
strategy.
The whippersnapper
Then we have the younger folks (for our purposes, that could mean anyone from ages 20 to
60). The reaction of these people to the title Income
Investor is easily predicted: "But I don't need income."
My response, of course, is that it doesn't matter. If you don't need income
from your dividend portfolio today, you simply reinvest it. "But won't I have to pay
taxes on the dividends when they're paid?" they ask. Yes (unless you're holding it in
a tax-free account), but it still doesn't matter.
As I mentioned last month, beyond singling out good companies up front,
choosing to reinvest dividends is the most important investment decision you'll ever make.
According to data compiled by author Jeremy Siegel, reinvesting dividends in quality
companies beats all other investing strategies hands down.
Indeed, if you'd begun investing in 1897 and reinvested your dividends along
the way, 97% of your account's value today would be the result of reinvested dividends.
This means capital appreciation accounted for 3% of the total. Which would you rather
have: the 3% received by the so-called growth investor or the 97% the dividend investor
got?
This best illustrates my goal for the Income
Investor newsletter service. I'm not merely looking for good stock picks here. I
also want to provide you with a low-risk, high-return, lifelong solution to portfolio
management.
The bottom line is that investors need to realize that a dividend-oriented
strategy offers something for everyone: the ability to beat the market while maintaining
flexibility. If you're young, reinvest your dividends and beat the returns of all other
investors. If you're a little older, build the most flexible and diverse income stream
possible. And in either case, sit back and enjoy your results.
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