What percentage of your nest egg should you
withdraw each year in retirement? This is a critical question. You want to live
comfortably, but not so comfortably now that you end up eating government surplus cheese
in your final years. Here's some information drawn from the work of TMF Pixy:
Many formulas will help you plan, but they rely on average rates of return and
inflation. Over the long term, an average rate should work, especially when you're still
saving for retirement. Unfortunately, actual year-to-year results won't be the same as the
average and, for retirees in some time periods, those yearly variations may prove
devastating. In other words, one 15-year period might average a 14% annual return, while
another 15-year period might average just 2%. The longer the time period you're dealing
with, the less the overall average return rate should fluctuate.
When you start withdrawals is just as important as how much you take. Whether the
market is surging or slumping in your first years can make a big difference. Since we
can't predict the future, what's the right percentage to withdraw?
- Three Trinity University professors -- Philip Cooley, Carl
Hubbard, and Daniel Walz -- examined this issue by looking at historical annual returns
for stocks and bonds from 1926 through 1995. Not surprisingly, their study revealed
withdrawal periods longer than 15 years dramatically reduced the probability of success at
withdrawal rates exceeding 5%.
They also concluded that:
Younger retirees who anticipate longer payout periods should plan on lower
withdrawal rates.
Owning bonds decreases the likelihood of going broke for lower to mid-level
withdrawal rates, but most retirees would benefit with at least a 50% allocation to
stocks.
Retirees who desire inflation-adjusted withdrawals must accept a substantially
reduced withdrawal rate from the initial portfolio.
Withdrawing 4% or less from a stock-dominated portfolio is probably too
conservative.
For payout periods of 15 years or less, a withdrawal rate of 8% to 9% from a
stock-dominated portfolio appears sustainable.
According to many studies, a "safe" withdrawal rate would amount to
between 4% and 6% of a retiree's starting portfolio. Withdrawal rates above 5% increase
the probability that a retiree will go broke in her lifetime. Many studies also agree that
the presence of bonds provides a measure of stability absent in an all-stock portfolio.
Additionally, it appears that inflation-adjusted withdrawals fare best at
lower-to-midlevel withdrawal rates.