In light of the growing popularity of adding a consultative
element to the giving of financial advice, along with the availability of do-it-yourself
financial planning, the author of this article believes it is time to examine the
potential pitfalls in the consulting process. He suggests that the methods financial
advisors are using may, in fact, be a factor in the decision of some clients to abandon a
professionally designed strategy and strike out on their own financial planning path.
The way investment services are delivered in this country has undergone profound change in
the last decade. One of the most significant changes has been the shift from the
product-oriented sales approach to the consultative approach for providing financial
services. A symptom of this change has been the trend toward fee-based advice. But the
importance of this change has less to do with the way financial advisors are compensated
than with the ideological framework that is at the heart of the consultative services
movement. Consulting services can be paid for either on a fee or a commission basis. The
true significance of this change is found in the fact that the focus is no longer on
product-oriented storytelling, but rather on client needs. In the consultative services
model, client interests come first.
Along with this new ideology has come a new methodology for providing investment services
to individual investors. The new methodology is modeled on the consulting process used for
years by institutional investment consultants in providing services to their clients,
primarily employee benefit plans. The process involved:
1. A
thorough profiling of clients needs, goals, experiences, preferences, time horizon
(often infinite) and other relevant characteristics such as risk tolerance
2. Creation
of a statement of investment policy or other written guidelines setting forth a strategy
for achieving the clients goals, while taking into account the factors identified as
significant in the profiling process
3. Selection
of investment managers to implement the investment policy
4. Periodic
monitoring and reporting of results
The consultative approach to providing
investment advice caught on and grew rapidly in many parts of the financial services
world, but particularly among financial planners and independent financial advisors. In
fact, the culture of this relatively small corner of the financial services world is
defined today by the consultative approach to advising clients. Clients responded
positively to this approach because, for the first time, their needs were the focus of the
interaction with their financial advisors.
Ultimately, the financial services behemoths took note and initiated a rapid migration to
the consultative model of doing business. There are still pockets of resistance (most
notably the insurance industry), but we are now witnessing the phenomenon of vast armies
of formerly product-oriented brokers laying down their arms and being transformed
overnight into financial consultants. These freshly minted financial
consultants are joining ranks with the planners and independent advisors who pioneered the
consultative services movement, thus depriving the pioneers of their primary basis for
differentiating themselves from their better-financed competitors.
At the same time, we have witnessed a rapid commoditization of investment products over
the past decade. For example, at the end of the 1990s, there were six times the number of
mutual funds in existence as there were at the beginning of the 1990s. There are now more
mutual funds than there are stocks on the New York, American and Nasdaq stock exchanges combined. More and more, we
see firms that once exclusively promoted proprietary products open their doors to, and
actively promote, the widest selection of non-proprietary products. Soon, thanks to the
Internet, clients will have direct access to an unlimited variety of investment products.
The days of the product gatekeepers are over. Everyone will have access to everything.
As more financial advisors adopt the consultative model and investment products become
more commoditized, the quality of an advisors consulting services will become the
primary basis for differentiation from other advisors. This is certainly good news for
clients, who will benefit directly as financial advisors vie with one another to improve
the quality of their services. For financial advisors, however, it means that a thorough
review of their consulting processes is in order.
To help with that process, I have identified Seven Deadly Sins of Consulting. The list is
by no means exhaustive (our ability to sin is limitless), but I believe it will help
financial advisors take a fresh look at how they provide consulting services and provide
some very practical ideas about how to improve those services. I believe that the biggest
single risk to your clients financial well-being is the risk that your client will
abandon the strategy you have devised for them before it has had a chance to produce
results. This risk is especially high these days because there are so many do-it-yourself
alternatives and so much pressure on clients to go it on their own. For that reason, the
seven deadly sins are intended to help you identify consulting practices you
employ that might inadvertently contribute to your clients decision to abandon the
strategy you have created for them.
Pride
Financial advisors spend a great deal of their time studying the behavior of markets and
the relative merits of various styles of investment and types of investment vehicles. This
is a good and necessary part of our profession. Advisors must understand the forces that
affect financial markets and the alternative ways to implement an investment program for a
client.
The problem arises when a financial advisor stops looking at the different approaches to
investing as tools to use when appropriate and begins to believe that there is a right
answer. You can see this problem manifest itself in the debates between advocates of
indexing versus active management, mutual funds versus separately managed accounts, and
strategic versus tactical asset allocation. The proponents of these approaches to
investing become extremely committed to the academic proof statements showing that their
view of the world is correct. But their pride in being right blinds them to some important
realities.
First of all, as an advocate of a single approach to investing, you will be right
sometimes and you will be wrong sometimes. For example, indexers looked pretty smart for
much of the recent past. From 1994 to 1998, the S&P 500 beat the average equity mutual
fund manager handily. Even if you account for the fees and expenses that bring down a
mutual funds performance, the S&P 500 still looked like the right answer by a
wide margin. But you dont have to go back too far in history to find periods when
the indexers were wrong. The periods 1973 to 1983 and 1990 to 1993 are
examples. More recently, the last two quarters of 1999 provide another example. Indexers
would argue that those periods are anomalies and that, if you look at results over long
periods of time (20 years or more), indexing is clearly the right answer. Mathematically,
they might be correct (most of the time), but they miss the most essential point.
Being a consultant is all about getting results for your client. Unfortunately, for the
academics (and for those who listen too closely to them), clients dont make
decisions over 20-year time horizons. They react on a much shorter time frame. If you have
just told your client that indexing is a superior strategy and then we move into a period
like 1973 to 1983, you will be wrong in the clients eyes, you will lose credibility
and increase the risk that your client will abandon the investment strategy you created
for them, even though, over time, the strategy would have produced the financial results
the client needed.
An excellent illustration of this problem appeared in an article by Roger Gibson titled
The Rewards of Multiple-Asset-Class Investing, published in the March 1999
issue of this journal. In his article, Gibson asserts that multiple-asset-class investing
is superior to other strategies on both a risk and return basis. Pretty strong stuff. He
demonstrates this superiority by examining the quarterly returns of four asset classes
(represented by the S&P 500, EAFE (Europe, Australia and Far East Index), NAREIT
(National Assocation of Real Estate Investment Trusts) and the Goldman Sachs Commodity
Index) for the period 19721997, and concluding that a portfolio consisting of 25
percent of each of these asset classes beats any one of the asset classes alone on a
risk-and-return basis. Leaving aside the fact that Gibsons multiple-asset-class
portfolio would be a pretty unpalatable brew for most clients, there is another problem
with his conclusion. Like most proofs of the superiority of a particular investment style,
it depends heavily on the time period examined and the data used.
If you look at the data a little differently, the picture changes. In Gibsons study,
the annualized return of the multiple-asset-class portfolio was 14.4 percent, compared
with the S&P 500s return of 13.3 percent. The multiple-asset-class portfolio had
only about two-thirds the risk of the S&P 500. Gibson is clearly rightthe
multiple-asset-class portfolio is superior on a risk and return basis. However, if you add
1998 to the study and look at monthly instead of quarterly data (clients usually receive
custodial statements once a month), the S&P 500 outperforms the multiple-asset-class
portfolio 13.8 percent versus 13.3 percent. If you look at the data on a rolling one-year
basis, the average yearly return of the S&P 500 is 14.7 percent versus 14 percent for
the multiple-asset-class portfolio, and the S&P 500 outperforms the
multiple-asset-class portfolio about half the time. The S&P 500 is still riskier, but
it has better returns. In fact, during the past three years, the S&P 500 would have
outperformed the multiple-asset-class portfolio every year. So, which strategy is
superior? Ask a client. Gibson quotes one of his multiple-asset-class clients as saying:
I would rather follow an inferior strategy that wins when my friends are winning and
loses when my friends are losing than follow a superior strategy that at times results in
my losing when my friends are winning. What was Gibsons response? There
is pain in being different.
Perhaps a better response is to put our pride aside and admit to ourselves and our clients
that we dont have all the answers. Markets are inherently unpredictable and we do
not know what strategy will be superior in the future. And even if we did know which
strategy would be superior mathematically, as Gibsons client demonstrates, that
strategy might be far from superior from the clients perspective. If our most
important task is keeping our clients on track with their investment program over the long
haul, then our primary concern should be satisfying our clients needs, not guessing
what strategy may be the big winner in the years to come.
We should stop talking about the relative superiority of various approaches to investing
and focus on identifying the strategy that is most likely to meet the clients
long-term return objectives, while satisfying the clients preferences and needs. If
clients ask questions about the relative merits of different types of investments, we can
bring out the charts and give them a history lesson, but make sure it is properly labeled
as history, as opposed to a prediction about the future.
By focusing on client goals, objectives, experiences, biases, preferences and risk
tolerance, we can have a much more meaningful conversation with our clients and avoid the
risk that our client loses faith in us because our right answer turns out to
be wrong for a while. We are much better off talking about the future in terms of the
range of likely outcomes and the probability of reaching the clients goal than we
are trying to convince the client that we can see the future. There are many tools
available today to help us have this type of conversation with our clients. We should use
them.
Sloth
The concept of risk and its proper role in creating investment strategies for clients
appears to be one of the most misunderstood areas of investing. Measuring risk is complex,
far more complex than measuring return. We talk about risk and return as though they were
two dimensions of an investment that could be measured like the length and width of a
rectangle. But return is an objective, quantifiable fact, while risk is experiential and
subjective.
Because understanding risk is difficult and quantifying it even more difficult, we have
looked for ways to simplify risk and reduce it to a manageable variable. We have tried to
find easy, shorthand expressions of risk such as standard deviation, beta, Sharpe ratios
and other mathematical abstractions that do not, in any meaningful way, capture the
concept of risk as our clients experience it.
Unfortunately, there is no easy way to capture risk mathematically. That is because risk
is really a measure of pain, and each investor experiences pain in a slightly different
way. So providing excellent consulting services to our clients requires us to do the hard
work of going beyond mathematical abstractions and engaging our clients in a wide-ranging
discussion about the pain they might feel in different investment situations.
Researchers in the field of behavioral finance offer some interesting perspectives on risk
as our clients experience it. Through experiments going back many years, they have
demonstrated that most people feel the pain of loss about 2 to 2.5 times as intensely as
they feel the pleasure of gain. This asymmetry of risk is important to understand when
dealing with clients, but it is only the beginning. Behavioral finance also teaches that
clients experience risk differently at different times and in different circumstances. For
example, clients may be less risk averse when they are dealing with what the researchers
call house money. This refers to the phenomenon one observes in a casino where
a gambler takes greater risks with his winnings than with the money he had in his pocket
when he walked through the door of the casino. Likewise, investors tend to be more risk
averse with the money they invest originally than with the money that represents the gains
on their investment.
A recent study by the Decision Science Research Institute further underscores the
complexity of measuring risk in the investment context. In that study, financial advisors
were asked questions designed to assess the likelihood that they would invest in a variety
of different types of investments. Not surprisingly, the study confirmed that the
likelihood of investing is highly related to the perception of the risk/return
characteristics of the investment. However, the study also revealed that the evaluation of
an investment is most strongly related to perceptions of return and that perceptions of
risk are a secondary factor and far harder to measure. This was attributed to the fact
that perceptions of risk are multidimensional and are not applied consistently from
investment to investment. The volatility of an investment is considered as a risk factor,
but so are the psychological demands associated with ongoing monitoring, predictability of
performance, potential loss of capital and perceived adequacy of regulation. The study
also concludes that, because of the multidimensional aspects of risk, at least some of the
emphasis in current financial planning practice on the measurement of risk tolerance
may be misplaced.
So how can a financial advisor use this information to improve the level of his or her
consulting services? First of all, be aware that mathematical abstractions such as
standard deviation do not capture the concept of risk as your client experiences it. You
would also be well advised to delve into the world of behavioral finance to improve your
appreciation for how your clients experience risk. In addition, you should recognize that
simple risk tolerance questionnaires are merely a starting point for a fuller discussion
you should have with each client about their perceptions of, and sensitivity to, risk. And
finally, recognizing that downside volatility is disproportionately painful to clients,
you should spend considerable time educating them and preparing them for the inevitable
downdrafts they will experience. Yes, its a lot of work, but in a world where
success is determined by the quality of your consulting services, its well worth it.
Lust
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Virtually every investor
in America has seen this warning. Yet most of them fail to take heed
because they lust after yesterdays eye-catching returns. In a sense, this is
understandable. Investors are exposed to a barrage of advertisements, articles and pitchesall
touting the past performance of various managers, funds and stocks. The message is
everywhere: performance matters. It is not surprising that investors
implicitly accept past performance as a valid basis upon which to make investment
decisions.
A recent study by the Dalbar investment consulting firm showed (once again) the danger of
this approach to investing. Dalbar compared the returns of various indexes with the
returns achieved by the average equity fund investor and the average fixed-income fund
investor for the period 1984 through 1998. During that period, the S&P 500 returned
almost 18 percent annually, long-term bonds returned over 12 percent, small company stocks
returned just over 11 percent, intermediate-term bonds returned over 9 percent and T-bills
returned almost 6 percent, while inflation averaged 3.26 percent a year. Yet the average
equity fund investor received just 7.25 percent annually and the average fixed-income fund
investor achieved 6.33 percent annually. During the same period, the average equity fund
returned 13.5 percent and the average fixed-income fund returned 8.8 percent.
How can this be? How can investors do so poorly compared with the indexes and average fund
returns? Dalbar chalks it up to inept market timing, but I dont believe that is the
reason. The term market timing suggests some sort of analysis or system for
determining whether markets are headed up or headed down. I dont believe the
investors in the Dalbar study have anything resembling an analytical or systematic
framework for their investments. They are simply chasing past performance. They invest in
the funds that have produced high returns, those funds fall in value, and the investors
panic and sell out. Its that simple. Theres no market timing involved at all.
Its just buy high and sell low.
Professor Richard Thaler of the University of Chicago conducted a study that underscored the dangers of investing
based on past performance. He took all the stocks on the New York Stock Exchange and
ranked them based on their returns over a five-year period. He then formed two portfolios:
one with the 35 stocks that went up the most over the five-year period and one with the 35
stocks that went down the most. He followed the two portfolios for five years. You guessed
it. The portfolio of losers outperformed the portfolio of winners by about 40 percent.
At our firm, we performed a similar study using Morningstar mutual fund rankings. We
reached the same result. We looked at the performance of all funds that had a five-star
rating (the highest) on December 31, 1994, and compared their performance with that of all funds that had
a two-star rating on the same date. (See article on page 110, The Persistence of
Morningstar Ratings.) We tracked performance from January 1, 1995, through June 31, 1998. During that
period, the two-star funds averaged 20.1 percent annually, while the five-star funds
returned only 17.3 percent, a fairly wide margin of difference. There is just no way
around itbuying yesterdays winners is a strategy that is unlikely to provide
good results tomorrow.
So what does this have to do with you? You are a trained professional and would never
succumb to the temptation to chase yesterdays winners. Well, thats good, but
just remember that lust is not a sin committed only by nonprofessionals. The mentality of
the herd affects us all. It certainly affects your clients. Thats apparent from the
Dalbar study. And be aware that the constant barrage of media exposure given to past
winners fuels the fires of lust in the hearts of all investors. Deal with this issue up
front before you end up dealing with it in a defensive posture. Show your clients the
Dalbar study and tell them about Professor Thalers study. There are many other
examples of the dangers of chasing past performance. Make sure your clients are forewarned
so they will understand why you did not invest their assets in yesterdays beauty
contest winners.
One strategy that you might try with your clients is asking them to go cold turkey on the
consumption of financial news. The media are powerful and their influence on peoples
behavior is immense. Unfortunately, that influence is mostly negative. One story you might
want to share with your clients is about a study done by Paul B. Andreassen, then a
psychologist at Harvard. He formed four groups of investors and asked two of the groups to
make mock investments in a stock with a fairly stable share price. The other two groups
were asked to make mock investments in a stock with a fairly volatile stock price. One of
the groups investing in the stable stock and one of the groups investing in the volatile
stock were given a constant stream of actual news reports about the companies in which
they were to invest. The other two groups got no news. The investors who got no news
performed better than those who received news, and the investors who received no news and
traded in the volatile stock performed over twice as well.
Gluttony
Many investors have gotten fat on the returns offered by the financial markets since the
early 1980s (the investors in the Dalbar study being a notable exception). From the
beginning of 1982 through the end of 1999, the Dow rose from 875 to 11,497. The S&P
500 gained 2,100 percent over the same period. The old saying, a rising tide lifts
all boats, and Woody Allens statement that 90 percent of life is just
showing up, are both apt here. The markets stunning performance has created an
entire generation of bull market geniuses.
Not only did investors do well just by being in the game, they felt very little pain along
the way. Between 1900 and 1984, there were 28 bull markets and 28 bear markets. Only four
of these bull markets were longer than 1,000 days. Only one of the bear markets was
shorter than three months. Between 1984 and 1999, however, there were three bull markets,
all of which were longer than 1,000 days. There were only two bear markets and both were
shorter than three months. Who says, no pain, no gain?
Actually, the picture today is not quite so rosy for many investors. For some time now,
the most visible U.S. equity market indexes have been driven by a relative handful of
stocks. For example, in 1999 the Dow gained 25.2 percent while the S&P 500 rose 21.1
percent. At the same time, however, 53 percent of all Nasdaq stocks were down as were 62
percent of all NYSE issues and 54 percent of the stocks included in the S&P 500. The
problem is that whether your client actually did well during the course of the bull market
or not, clients tend to think they should be receiving returns close to the returns of the
Dow and the S&P 500. This is what behavioral finance advocates refer to as a
frame-of-reference problem. The Dow and the S&P 500 have become what are called anchors,
and clients use these anchors to assess their investment results.
This represents a serious threat to your clients financial well-being because it
means that they are probably feeling like they could and should be feeding on the returns
of the Dow and the S&P 500. In fact, this has been a relatively hard thing to do
recently unless your clients portfolios are constructed around a small group of
richly valued large growth stocks. This tendency of clients to be influenced by anchors
like the Dow and the S&P 500 is a powerful one; today it is very likely leaving them
feeling frustrated by their inability to feed on the markets returns.
Education and awareness are the keys to avoiding this problem. Look for and recognize the
anchors that influence your clients frame of reference. Help your clients understand
what the indexes are and what drives their performance. Help them see their portfolios in
the broader context of their own financial goals. And avoid creating frame-of-reference
problems through the overuse or misuse of benchmarks (see next sin).
Anger
Financial advisors make extensive use of benchmarks to measure the performance of their
clients investments. This is good because benchmarks, if used properly, can be
useful tools in a financial advisors arsenal.
But nothing makes a client angrier than a quarterly performance report full of managers or
funds that have missed their benchmarks. Unfortunately, because of the way benchmarks are
often used, this is an all-too-frequent occurrence.
The first reason stems from the fact that we typically classify managers and funds as
falling within a single style category (such as large-cap growth) and then use a single
index as a yardstick against which to measure the manager. One problem with this is that
many managers and certainly most actively managed mutual funds dont fit quite so
neatly into a single category. For example, the Dreyfus Appreciation fund is typically
categorized as a large-cap growth manager. Yet attribution analysis shows that this fund
often invests in both large value and large growth companies. For this reason, the fund
cannot be easily judged by reference to the Russell 1000 Growth index, which is often used
as a benchmark for large-cap growth managers.
We also handicap managers by comparing them with benchmarks on a quarterly basis. Managers
often make moves in their portfolio that take more than a quarter to pay off. In the
meantime, a manager is likely to fall short of their benchmark, even though the manager
may look just fine, relative to the benchmark, over a longer period.
These are just a few illustrations of problems that can arise from using benchmarks to
measure manager performance. Should we stop using benchmarks? The answer is clearly no.
But should we reassess how we present them to clients and consider the messages we are
sending through these presentations? Definitely.
We can start by reviewing the benchmarks we use to make sure they make sense. Single-index
benchmarks are often less-than-totally satisfactory yardsticks for active managers.
Consider the use of multi-index benchmarks that more accurately reflect a managers
true investment style.
Another idea would be to de-emphasize benchmarks in your performance reports. You can use
benchmarks any way you want in assessing managers, but is it wise to show clients
everything you look at in monitoring the managers performance? You naturally
interpret manager performance relative to a benchmark in a way that your client does not.
In the clients eyes, if the manager misses the benchmark, the manager has somehow
failed. And, because you selected the manager or fund, you have failed, too. Consider
whether you are undermining your clients confidence in a sound investment strategy
and creating unnecessary doubt about your own advice by benchmarking every manager and
fund in your clients portfolio.
Another thought would be to benchmark the overall portfolio in a way that is truly
meaningful to the clients investment strategy. Let managers stray from their
benchmarks as long as the overall portfolio performance is meeting the clients
long-term goals. Show portfolio performance relative to the clients long-term return
objective and show where that performance falls within the range of likely outcomes. As
long as the client is on track to reach his or her goal and returns fall within acceptable
boundaries, let the portfolio ride. Short-term failures to meet benchmarks often are
overcome over longer time periods.
In any event, you should give serious thought to how you use benchmarks in your practice.
Make sure that you minimize the likelihood that you are undermining your clients
confidence in a sound long-term strategy. It is far better that your clients live through
a couple quarters of sub-benchmark performance by their managers than that they abandon
their strategy because they think their portfolios are full of bad managers.
Greed
In 1738, Daniel Bernouli hypothesized that the rational person would make economic
decisions in a manner designed to maximize their overall state of wealth. In other words,
a persons natural greed would drive them through a rational process designed to
maximize the utility of each decision. As applied to investments, this means that the
rational investor would look at his or her entire portfolio and make investments based on
the impact those decisions would have on the overall value of the portfolio.
Unfortunately, Bernouli was wrong.
Studies from the field of behavioral finance show that investors tend to compartmentalize
their investments and analyze performance narrowly on an investment-by-investment basis.
This tendency, referred to as narrow framing, causes investors to be more risk
averse than they should be. Lets look at how this works. First, how would you feel
about accepting a bet where you had a 50 percent chance to win $15,000 and a 50 percent
chance to lose $10,000? Now assume you have a net worth of $2 million. How would you feel
about a bet that would give you a 50 percent chance to increase your wealth by $15,000 and
a 50 percent chance that your wealth would be decreased by $10,000? In both cases, the bet
is exactly the same, but most people are far more willing to take the chance once they
have expanded their focus from the outcome of the bet itself to the impact the bet would
have on their overall net worth.
For another perspective on the same issue, consider this proposition: Would you flip a
coin where you would receive $200 if you called the outcome correctly, but would lose $100
if you were wrong? Most people dont like this bet very much. But how would you feel
about this bet if you got to flip the coin 100 times? Most people would jump at the
chance.
These examples demonstrate the power of getting your client to overcome the natural
tendency to look at the world narrowly, and instead look at their investments in the
larger context. Narrowly focused clients are more fearful and experience significantly
more regret than clients who understand that investing is a process that involves a series
of well-placed bets made over a long time period. Not every bet pays off, but as long as
the overall state of wealth improves, all is well.
This concept has many practical implications for financial consultants. First, clients
should be encouraged to look at their investments broadly. This message should be
reinforced at every opportunity. An important example would be quarterly performance
reviews. Spend less time analyzing individual investments and more time on overall
portfolio performance. Dont focus on a clients various accounts (such as a
taxable investment account, individual retirement account or 401(k)). as separate pools of
wealth. Look at these accounts on a consolidated basis. Talk about investing as an ongoing
process and let your clients know that its okay to lose a coin toss now and then.
Envy
Everyone loves a winner. People envy winners and yearn to be winners themselves. Nowhere
is this more true than in the world of investing.
Terance Odean, a professor at the University of California at Davis, has studied
investment behavior on a wide scale and has concluded that this desire to be a winner is
very strong in investors. He refers to the manifestation of this desire as the disposition
effect. This is a tendency that investors have to sell their winners and hang on to
their losers. By disposing of an investment at a gain, it becomes a winner and the
investor experiences the positive feeling associated with winning. On the other hand, by
holding on to losers, investors avoid admitting their mistakes.
Obviously, the disposition effect alone can undermine a successful long-term
investment program. But Odean has identified another unfortunate tendency in investors
that can work in tandem with the disposition effect to seriously harm your clients
investment program. That is the tendency of investors to trade too often and with bad
results. Odean found that when an investor sells a stock and then buys another one, the
stock that was sold outperforms the stock that was purchased by an average of 3.2 percent
over the next 12 months and by an average of 3.6 percent over the next 24 months. The gap
becomes even wider when you eliminate nonspeculative trades made to raise cash, cut taxes
or rebalance the portfolio. After eliminating nonspeculative trades, the stocks that were
sold outperformed the stocks that were purchased by 5 percent after 12 months and 8.6
percent after 24 months.
Odeans research also demonstrates that the more an investor trades, the worse their
performance becomes. Odean found that investors typically turn over approximately 75
percent of their portfolio every year. He also found that a 70 percent turnover results in
performance that is 3.7 percent less than an index of all NYSE, AMEX and Nasdaq stocks.
When turnover rises to 200 percent a year, the results are even worse: 10.3 percent below
the broad market index. This is consistent with a study done in 1999 by the North American
Securities Administrators Association (NASAA) that found that 70 percent of day traders
will almost certainly lose everything they invest.
This research has significant practical application for investment consultants. Discuss
the disposition effect with your clients. Encourage them to be patient and forgo the
gratification of selling off winners prematurely. Likewise, help them overcome their
tendency toward what Odean calls regret avoidance and assist them in paring
the losers out of the portfolio in a timely manner. Dont turn a blind eye if your
client has taken to actively trading a portion of their portfolio. Share with them Odeans
findings on the effects of high portfolio turnover on performance. Encourage your clients
to be patient and exercise the restraint and discipline necessary for a successful
investment program.
Conclusion
Excellence in consulting requires the ability to understand how clients think about
investments and to see the world through their eyes. We must make every effort to use our
understanding to help our clients reach their long-term goals. In our effort to add value
to our client relationships, we should be sure that we do not inadvertently cause our
clients to lose faith in their long-term investment program and thus abandon the program
before they have reaped its long-term benefits.
Scott A. MacKillop is president of PMC International, Inc., Portfolio Management Consultants Inc.'s
parent company, based in Denver, Colorado. |