Word
Gems
What is a
man but the sum of his thoughts?
Economics
Steve
Forbes:
- The
Great (and Continuing)
- Economic
Debate of the 20th Century
STEVE FORBES is president and CEO of Forbes,
Inc., and editor-in-chief of Forbes magazine. In 1985, President Reagan named him chairman
of the Board for International Broadcasting, where he oversaw the operation of Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty. He was
reappointed to this post by President George H. W. Bush and served until 1993. Mr. Forbes
graduated in 1966 from Brooks School in North
Andover, Massachusetts, and
received a B.A. in history from Princeton University in 1970. He serves on the boards of the Ronald Reagan
Presidential Foundation, the Heritage Foundation and the Foundation for the Defense of
Democracies. His most recent book is Flat Tax Revolution: Using a Postcard to Abolish
the IRS.
The following is adapted from a speech delivered at
Hillsdale College on January 29, 2006, during a five-day seminar co-sponsored by the Center for
Constructive Alternatives and the Ludwig von Mises Lecture Series on the topic, Great
Economists of the Twentieth Century.
The great economic debate of the twentieth century was between collectivists and
free-marketers. In one sense, the free-marketers won: When the Berlin Wall fell in 1989,
it was widely acknowledged that Soviet socialism had been a catastrophic, not to say
murderous, failure. But in another sense, the debate continues. Democratic capitalism
still has not vanquished the idea of collectivism. Far from it.
At the beginning of the last century, free markets seemed to be on the ascendancy
everywhere. But two events gave collectivism its lease on life. The first was World War I.
In addition to the slaughterand to breeding the ideologies of communism, state
fascism, Nazism, and even the Islamic fascism we are battling todayWorld War I
served as an intoxicating drug to those in the West who believed that a handful of people
in government could manage affairs better than the messy way in which free peoples tend to
do so. Massive increases in government powers, coupled with massive increases in taxation,
gave many the idea that you can achieve massive increases in production by commandeering
the financial resources of society.
The second event that served as a boon to collectivism was the Great Depression, which was
widely seen as a free-market failure. This view was false. Misguided government policies
were at faultthe Smoot-Hawley Tariff, for instance, which dried up the flow of
capital in and out of the country. If you track the stock market crash of 1929, it
parallels the course of this tariff bill through Congress. When Smoot-Hawley arose in the
fall of 1929, the markets fell; when it looked like the tariff bill was sidetracked in
late 1929, the markets revived (the Dow Jones went up 50 percent from its lows in
November); in the spring of 1930 it was signed into law, and the rest is history. There
were other factors at work in the Great Depression, of course, such as President Hoovers
gigantic tax increases of 1931. But despite the fact that these also involved bad
policies, the lesson taken away by many was that economies will implode unless the
government manages them. John Maynard Keynes, the intellectual guiding light behind New
Deal economics, believed that an economy was like a machine: If you put doses of money
into it or pull money out at the right times, he thought, you can achieve an equilibrium.
This idea that government can drive an economy as if it were an automobile has had baleful
consequences.
Other leading economists at the time, such as Joseph Schumpeter, recognized that an
economy is an aggregate of disparate activitiesthus that the idea of achieving
equilibrium, while it makes for a neat theory, is nonsense in the real world. A vibrant
economy is full of constant disequilibria: New enterprises rise up, old ones decline, etc.
Snapshots of such economies mean very little. In the real world, therefore, free markets
operate rationally and efficiently in a way that government regulators simply cant.
Here in America
we came to this realization at the end of the 1970s. Following World War II, we largely
bought into the idea that government must play an active role to prevent the economy from
going off the cliff. But in the late 1970s, the devastation of inflation and high taxes
brought about a reassessment. With the election of Ronald Reagan, the U.S.
took a step back from Keynesian economics. Since then, as Western
Europe
has stagnatedcreating, for instance, only a fraction of the private sector jobs that
the U.S.
has createdour country has undergone an economic revival.
Nonetheless, democratic capitalism often still seems on the defensive. Why?
Is Democratic Capitalism Good?
One of the great vulnerabilities of capitalism is the perception that it is somehow less
than moral, if not positively amoral. A common view of business was depicted in the movie
Wall Street, in which Michael Douglass character made famous the phrase, Greed
is good. Capitalism is widely seen as promoting selfishness. We tolerate it because
it gives us jobs and prosperity, but many look on this as a Faustian bargain. Charity and
capitalism are seen as polar opposites. Thus theres a phrase
thats often used todayI myself use it from time to time without thinkingwhich
is giving back. If youve succeeded in business, its counted a good
thing if you give back to the community. And charity is, of course, a good
thing. The problem with this phrase is its implication that by succeeding, we have taken
something that wasnt ours. The same idea is summed up in the cynical saying,
Behind every great fortune lies a great crime. This way of thinking about
democratic capitalism is wrong.
In fact, philanthropy and capitalism are two sides of the same coin. To succeed in
business in a free-market economy, one must meet the needs and wants of others. Even
someone who makes babies cry is not going to succeed unless he or she provides a product
or a service that people want. This system weaves intricate webs of cooperation that we
dont even think about. Take a restaurant: Someone who opens a restaurant assumes
that farmers will provide the food and that someone else will process and package it and
that someone else will deliver it, having been supplied the fuel to do so by yet someone
else, etc. These marvelous webs of cooperation happen every day throughout a free economy.
No one is commanding it. It occurs spontaneously in a way that economists like Schumpeter
understood.
Free markets also force people to look to the future and take risks. Misers do not found
companies like Microsoft. Nor should we look on it as immoral for people to work for the
betterment of themselves and their families. We are all born with God-given talents, and
it is right to develop them to the fullest. The great virtue of democratic capitalism is
that it guarantees that as we develop our talents, were contributing to the public
good. Statistics show that the U.S.
is both the most commercial nation and the most philanthropic nation in human history. And
this is no paradox. The two go hand-in-hand.
Another vulnerability of democratic capitalism is that although it leads to progress and
to an increase in our societal standard of living, progress is usually disruptive. This
allows collectivists to play on peoples natural fear of change. We saw this with the
rise of industrialism in the 19th century. We had paintings and writings depicting a
pastoral agricultural past. Then railroads came along to disrupt the canals, and cars came
along to disrupt the railroads. Buggy-whip makers and blacksmiths were done for. One can
imagine what 60 Minutes would have been investigating 100 years ago: the poor blacksmiths
being put out of work by Henry Ford. Likewise, when TV came along in the late 1940s and
early 1950s, most movie theaters in the country went broke. Now the Internet is disrupting
newspapers and Craigs List is disrupting classified advertising. Disruptions are
inevitable in a free-market system. The political challenge is to allow these disruptions
to take placethey are ultimately constructive, after allrather than reacting
in a way that stymies progress.
In recent decades, collectivists have also hijacked the cause of environmentalism to
promote their agenda. Im not talking about the desire to have clean water; were
all in favor of that. Or clean air; one of the great things weve done in the last
century is getting lead out of the air. Saving tigers and elephants is also a good thing.
Im talking about those who use the mantra of environmentalism to try to control the
economy the way the old-time socialists wanted to, breathing hellfire and damnation on
those who dont subscribe to their new, post-Christian religion. The fact is, if our
goal is to improve the environment, increasing government regulation and destroying
manufacturing is counterproductive. Affluence is the friend, not the enemy, of the
environment. As people become better off, they want a higher quality of life, including
environmental improvements. And new technology drives such improvements. Consider the east
coast of the U.S.
Even though its population has more than doubledin some areas, its tripledand
even though there are more developments, malls, and urban sprawl, there are more trees
today than there were 80 years ago. Why? Because of technology that allows us to grow more
food on less land. Technology is a friend of the environment.
Additional Collectivist Myths
Let me mention three additional myths that are used to promote collectivism. One is the
idea that demand is the key to economic growth. Collectivist economists often talk about
means to increase aggregate demand, as if that would ensure that the economy
will grow. Following Keynes, they assume that the economy is like a machine. But again,
the economy is an aggregate of tens of millions of people, millions of businesses,
millions of technologies. We dont know how it interacts on a day-to-day basis. We
dont know whats going to work or not work. Who could have conceived of eBay
ten to twelve years ago? But today, 400,000 people make their livings on eBay. When Google
was launched, there were ten other search engines. Who would have thought another one was
needed? Isnt that how you get so-called bubbles? But Google found a way
to do it better and ended up on top. Innovation is the key. Whether its railroads,
cars, computers, the Internet, or iPods, risk-taking is messy. It is often irrational, and
seemingly wasteful. But its the only way to determine what works best and what doesnt.
Another collectivist myth concerns trade. If I were dictator of the worldeven though
I believe in the First AmendmentI would ban trade numbers, especially merchandise
trade numbers. They just lead to mischief. We are given the impression that a trade
surplus is like a profit and a trade deficit is like a loss. But trade is not a
transaction between countries. It takes place between parties. For example, Forbes
magazine buys paper. For all of the 88 years that weve been in existence, weve
run a trade deficit with our paper suppliers. If you look just at that trade deficit, you
might think we are doing poorly. But if you look at the two parties involved, that turns
out to be an illusion. The paper supplier thinks hes going to make money selling his
paper. We think were going to make money by taking the paper and putting print on
it, with value added. So its a mutually profitable transaction, even if it looks
like a trade deficit. Or consider a book printed in Taiwan.
Looking at the trade number alone, it appears there is a two dollar trade deficit with Taiwan.
Yet the book comes back here and retails for $24.95. The value added is in the U.S.
The author gets a cut, the publisher gets a cut, booksellers get a cut, distributors get a
cut, and remainder stores get a cut. Something similar happened with iPods: A lot of its
parts are made overseas, but where is most of the value added? Here in the United
States.
North
America
has had a merchandise trade deficit for 350 out of the last 400 years, and we have done
very well, thank you.
The final myth Ill mention concerns budget deficits. Milton Friedman said several
years ago that if he had a choice between a federal budget of $1 trillion that was in the
red and a federal budget of $2 trillion that was balanced, he would take the former.
Deficits, in and of themselves, are not evil. Deficits must be put in context, because Washingtons
inability to curb spending is often used as an excuse to raise taxes.
Principles of Prosperity
Now let me turn to five basic principles of economic growth.
First and foremost is the rule of law: Without individual equality
before the law, entrepreneurs cannot challenge already existing businesses. Alliances
between the latter and government regulators who place barriers before entrepreneurs must
be guarded against.
The second essential principle is property rights. We take it
for granted in this country that if you buy a piece of property, everyone acknowledges
that you own it. Most countries dont have that kind of uniform property system. A
few years ago, Hernando DeSoto, a great economist from Peru,
saw that in countries like his, although there is entrepreneurial activity, there isnt
the corresponding prosperity found in the U.S.
And he wondered why. In his recent bookThe Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism
Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Elseone of the
key factors he cites is the absence in so many other countries of a legal foundation for
property rights. In Brazils
shanty towns, an individual may know that he owns the house in which he lives, and his
neighbors may know it, but the fact is not recognized elsewhere.
Mr. DeSoto was asked by the Egyptian government a few years ago to determine who owns the
businesses and residences in Egypt.
His finding was that 88 percent of the businesses in Egypt
are illegal. Why is that? Here in the U.S.,
it is possible to set up a business legally in a matter of days. In Egypt,
it takes a couple of years. It requires going through numerous bureaucracies, doling out
numerous bribes, etc. So it makes sense to proceed informally. On the other
hand, running a business outside the law limits its growth. Most informal
enterprises never grow beyond the level of family enterprises, because if they get too
big, they might attract the attention of the tax collector. DeSotos group also
reported that 92 percent of Egyptian housing is illegal. People living in residences may
have deeds; but only a few miles away, those deeds are not recognized. In Egypt,
as in so many other places, there is no uniform system of establishing and protecting
property rights. As a result, four billion people around the world own $9 trillion of
assets that amount to dead capital.
What do I mean by dead capital? Remember that here in the U.S.,
the most important source of capital for new ventures is not Wall Street, the local banker
or the venture capitalist. It is the mortgage market. People either increase their
mortgage or take out a second mortgage in order to start businesses. This is not possible
in countries like Egypt.
Understanding this was the key to Japans
post-World War II economic boom. General MacArthur reformed a feudalistic property system,
in which the peasants had only an informal system of property exchange, into a system with
formalized property rights. Immediately, the Japanese economy took off. The importance of
property rights is not sufficiently recognized by those of us who take them for granted.
The third principle of economic prosperity is low taxes.
Taxes are not just a means of raising revenue for the government. They are also a price.
Income taxes are a price paid for working; taxes on profits are the price paid for being
successful in business; taxes on capital gains are the price paid for taking risks. In
light of this, the importance of low taxes is easy to see: When you lower the price of
good thingsthings like work, success and risk-takingyou tend to get more of
them. Raise the price of these good things and you get less. In 2003, we lowered tax rates
in the U.S.
and the economy started to grow again. As weve seen time and again, tax cuts do not
mean a loss of tax revenue. By increasing incentives, the government comes out ahead. Washingtons
revenues in the last fiscal year were up 15 percent$100 billion above expectations. Washingtons
problem is not revenue, but spending.
The fourth principle I would mention is making it simpler to
launch legal businesses. Getting bureaucracy out of the way will inject a new vibrancy
into the economy. The fifth and final principle is free trade. Expanding markets and
creating greater opportunity for trade benefits us all.
In closing, I will remind you of a point I made earlier: The reason that the great
economic debate continues into the 21st century, despite the proven superiority of free
markets in terms of delivering prosperity, is because of the misperceptions that keep
democratic capitalism from capturing the moral high ground. Dispelling these
misperceptions should be our priority as we carry on that debate in the years ahead.
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